As I have another tip of the week to give, I figured I would post something which would somewhat coincide with the topic, so here's a quick analysis of week 1.
Easy Prediction/Bad Betting Fixtures:
Draw Odds: Usually 4/1 or greater
Chelsea 1/7 to win VS West Brom 14/1 to win
Man Utd 2/9 to win VS Newcastle 12/1 to win
These are two of those games which will usually give you terrible odds for the favorites to win even if you go into betting on correct score. The other thing I don't like about fixtures like these, is it's so hard to predict just what teams like these will do. They can win by anything from 1-0 to 7-0 a la Chelsea last season so many times. With so many possibilities, I like to bet on other matches especially so early in the season but feel free if you want to make some easy cash by betting on outcomes.
Even Odd/Home Favorite Fixtures
Draw Odds: Usually 9/4
Tottenham 5/4 to win VS Man City 15/8 to win
Sunderland 6/4 to win VS Birmingham 2/1 to win
Wolves 6/5 to win VS Stoke 2/1 to win
Bolton 6/5 to win VS Fulham 2/1 to win
Liverpool 11/8 to win VS Arsenal 17/10 to win
These are the type of fixtures I began to fall in love with last year because of the potential winnings to be made. Every single fixture in this category is usually given odds of EVEN for the home team (1/1 to win) and 2/1 to win for the away team because they are all tough matches to call. Also, since the odds are so good for simple outcomes, the correct score bets are where I made alot of my money when I thought the away team would snatch a 1-0 or 2-1 win. But here is my favorite fixture type.
Best Betting Fixtures
Draw Odds: 9/4 or Greater
Wigan 4/5 to win VS Blackpool 10/3 to win
Aston Villa 4/6 to win VS West Ham 4/1 to win
Blackburn 17/10 to win VS Everton 11/8 to win
These are my favorite type but others might see it a little different. The reason I like these is because it is still, in my opinion, a very similar type of match as the ones above these yet the odds are much greater for the underdogs. West Ham and Villa is a perfect example. Obviously, Villa are favorites to win and at home, but just last year on the opening day they lost 2-1 to Wigan which if you made the same correct score bet on west ham this year your odds would be 8/1 or even 10/1 if your right. Another reason is just by looking at Blackburn VS Everton and you will see that both outcomes are greater than EVEN (1/1 to win) meaning if I just lay a basic bet on who will win, I'm gonna be making more than double what I bet.
TIP OF THE WEEK: Bet Smart.
It is very unlikely that teams outside of the top 8 score more than 2 goals in a match, and therefore you should bet that they don't. In fact, only 9 matches in the month of August had a team that scored more than 3 goals and they were all top 8 teams (Arsenal, Chelsea Liverpool all did twice, then Man Utd, Aston Villa and Tottenham did it the other 3. So if your going to bet on mid-lower table teams to win, stick to the 1-0 2-0 2-1 outcomes and save yourself the risk.
Hope you enjoy my input, until next time.
I would like to put some money on the Bolton-Fulham match...I think bolton can win that one.
ReplyDeleteNot sure where else to go about this, but when I go to the AM Blog, it says I need permission to view it? Did I miss something there? Is there anyway someone can get me in contact with the AM so I can read his blog? I have no idea what his e-mail is.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather go for a half time full time bet rather than taking the risk at correct score betting. Even if i lose on the half time, my chances of winning as the match ended is high plus the reveral odds that will make the profit great. Chelsea and Westbrom is a good fixture though only then there is the possibilty of a draw and that is why i included it in my doubles.
ReplyDelete